In life, there are only a few moments that really matter. 


They are short. Maybe < 30 seconds, perhaps ~1 minute in duration.


You nor I can choose what they are nor when they happen. They are as the wind, blown then gone again.


May I be ready for them.
Ahs

 log_a x = N means that a^N = x

Recursion

#include <iostream>

using namespace std;

void myFunction( int counter){

if(counter == 0)

     return;

else

       {

       cout << counter << endl;

       myFunction(--counter);

       return;

       }

}

int main(){

int my_int = 10;

myFunction(my_int);

}

Fwd:

BEHOLD Protype 0 of the Camorada

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Alex Spencer <axpence@me.com>
Date: Fri, May 25, 2012 at 1:04 AM
Subject:
To: Alex Email <alexanderhspencer@gmail.com>








Sent from my iPhone

Fwd: Fw: Thy Seed as the Stars of the Heavens

 

A photograph of 'Wall Street' canyon at Bryce Canyon National Park on September 20, 2011 in Utah, showing a view across our own galaxy, the Milky Way

 

 

Stunningly beautiful images capture the glory of the Milky Way taken with a digital camera

 

A photograph of Thor's Hammer at Bryce Canyon National Park on September 20, 2011 in Utah with the Milky Way overhead

The photographs of Wall Street were taken at Bryce Canyon National Park on September 20, 2011 inUtah.  

Bair says, 'My Nightscapes are exposures of the night sky with a landscape feature. All are evening time exposures.'
'Many are taken with special equipment in order expose the night stars without blurring. Some land features are enhanced with light painting.'

I have been giving lectures and workshops, internationally, on night photography for two decades.'

Bryce Canyon Amphitheater at Bryce Canyon National Park on September 21, 2011 in Utah

 

under lighted night exposure at Arches National Park on May 4, 2010 in Utah

 

Moonrise at Bryce Canyon National Park

 

The Milky Way over Jackson Lake and Tetons at Grand Teton National Park on August 23, 2011 in Wyoming

 

Milky Way stars over Grand Teton Mountain Range at Grand Teton National Park on August 23, 2011 in Wyoming

 

Delicate Arch, and Milky Way stars at Arches National Park on October 19, 2011 in Utah

 

A photograph of a meteor streaking between the Big Dipper and Polaris on January 4, 2012 in Salt Lake City, Utah

 

Double Arch and Milky Way stars at Arches National Park on October 19, 2011 in Utah

 

A photograph of a 'hole in the wall' at Arches National Park on October 21, 2011 in Utah

 

 

 

Trickle Down Effects

The business cycle in Greece and the Eurozone Adam Smith’s invisible hand has its “scuffed” spots, as Obama will surley point out. Greece knows all too well the rough edges of the business cycle. In recent months Greece has suffered a sever contraction in their economic cycle. Recent figures point out that Greece’s GDP is on a downward trajectory, and it does not seem like it will get any better soon. Greece’s unemployment rate is at 20% and rising. These resources of labor will never be utilized, they are wasted, forever. Unemployment tends to increase social costs for the country as a whole. Certainly crime and poverty rates per capita have increased. Furthermore, many are migrating from Greece to other locations. An interesting thing is that Greece’s currency has not devalued relative to Greece’s losses. The reason for this is apparent, because Greece uses the Euro, which is backed by many other member nations of the European Union. Greece is burdened with a deficit. It is predicted that in 20 years Greece MAY be able to reach a debt to GDP ratio of 120%. This leverage has caused Greece’s output to reduce substantially. Inventory fluctuations are likely to be high in Greece. Thus retailers are not buying from suppliers, who in turn are not producing as much. Demand for many goods has decreased sufficiently. This has an adverse (arguably minimal) effect on our economy. What may be the saddest of all is the fact that Greece’s economic loss can never be made up for. In 20 years time, when Greece has figured out all of their economic problems, if you draw a line of their then GDP’s possible trajectory, it will never reach the level that it could have if they had not entered into this mess. Likewise, the USA’s financial crisis of 2009 has caused trillions of dollars in damages and ultimately, the loss of life for many in Africa (and other impoverished nations) that would have had much (more) economic prosperity if the USA had avoided the financial mess. One day Greece will again produce along it’s PPF, unemployment will decrease and GDP increase, however only Mr. Fusion and the Flux Capacitor can reverse the economic damage done. I hope you and I think of the trickle down effects when we make public policies, because for many, economic prosperity is life or death.

time is your friend, and enemy (be a tortoise)

We've all heard this, and it's true:

If u save $2k a year at age 20 you  will have  $900k at age  60 (assuming the historical widely accepted 8% return)

If u start at 40 you will only have 180k

Remember the old story of the tortoise and the hair? Be a tortoise. Constant and steady.

Do you understand the difference between the two curves below when it comes to interest? 

If you don't, odds are that you are a sucker and will always be a debtor, not a creditor.
Does your interest compound on your initial blance? Or does it compound on the new balance?


Know the Difference between Simple and Compound Interest

The power of compounding can have an astonishing effect on the accumulation of wealth.   This table shows the results of making a one-time investment of $10,000    for 30 years using 12% simple interest, and 12% interest compounded yearly and quarterly.

Type of Interest	Principal Plus Interest Earned
Simple	46,000.00
Compounded Yearly	299,599.22
Compounded Quarterly	347,109.87

read more about simple and compound interest here










Take a minute to review the graph below by Franco Modigliani , 1985 nobel prize winner

The shaded area to the left is your average 20 year old in school with mounds of debt. (or mounds of debt because of a mortgage, etc)


Think of the thick black line as consumption.
Think of the thin black line as income.


You can only do 2 things.

1. Increase income
2. Decrease consumption

Practical Principals for Provident Living


1-Increase Income: save between 15-20% of income now

• set up automatic withdrawal from bank account - if you have to make a conscious decision to save every month you'll never do it
• save all of tax returns/unexpected earnings
• If you have debt, pay it off. That is a form of saving. When you pay off your debt do not increase your consumption, just keep making the payments, but this time not toward the debt, toward savings!

2-Push down consumption

• find a few small habits and eliminate them 

THERE IS NO "MAGIC BULLETT"

Many believe that there is one gov't program that we should cut that would fix our budget issues as a nation: wrong. There are 200 small ones that add up. Same with personal finance. Watch your spending. Small things add up.(38k cafe late)

• don't buy on impulse
• budget
• Don't buy lock-ins ie gym memberships or cable tv
• Let's put this in perspective: If I contribute $1 per day ($360 per year) for 50 years, at 5% Return, I’ll have more than$79,000! (check out this post for more info)

I had to bust out my excel and do some math.

The chart below shows that if I saved a dollar a day with just a 5% Return how well off I would be doing (using compound interest)

So Just think of all of those $1/$2/$10 purchases. They add up. 

understand the power of exponential growth!

3-HOW to save - not in one basket, and diversify
Get into indexed funds for the long run. Buy now and let it sit for 40 years.
Many studies have been done on this, the best way to diversify in the long run is to have 4 indexed funds:

1-a Russell fund

2-s&p 500

3-international funds

4-emerging funds 

• indexed funds get an 8% ROI in the long run, don't bother hiring a broker
• be careful of indexed funds transaction costs ($10 a purchase, etc.) and buy accordingly
• indexed funds have .015% operating costs, therefore 7.85% return on average (real rate of return)
• avoid mutual funds!!

Remember,

YOU ARE NOT SMARTER THAN THE MARKET!

4-You can't get something for nothing.

US Treasury bills are the only certain rate of return.

• Right now US Treasury bills rate of return is at about 2%. Don't believe anybody that tells you that there is a certain 20% rate of return
• It is a game of the tortoise and the hair. If you are a tortoise you'll be wealthy when you're old.
• Buy now and hold. You will get 8% real rate of return.

5-Minimize Debt

Only take out debt when there is an asset i.e.:

• Home
• Education

NOT for consumption, ie

• Car
• Vacation

and, don't borrow more than the asset is worth.

If needs be, take on more debt and work less if that is what it takes to get thru school. Don't get a lousy education by working full time. It doesn't make sense to work for $10/hr when your opportunity costs are much higher.

6-Insure against Catastrophes

HIGH DEDUCTIBLE = GOOD

Only insure for something that will impoverish you. Don't insure for glasses and dental. You can save for those. Same thing with auto insurance. High deductible. When you have people who depend on you (ie wife, kids) get life insurance. Always buy term, not life insurance.


thanks to JR Kearl and other sources cited.
-ahs

China vs. USA

So, is it wrong for China to "cheat" by pegging their currency to the dolar?


Phase I - Artificial devaluation of Yuan, Maintaining Trade Imbalance
1-China exports more goods to the USA than the USA exports to China.
2-China gets revenue in USD and wants to convert it to Yuan
3-USA gets revenue in Yuan and wants to convert it to USD
4-More demand for Yuan than for USD because China has more revenue in USD than does usa in Yuan
5-This makes the price of the dollar relative to the Yuan fall. Yuan appreciates, Dollar depreciates in value.
6-****This makes the Chinese upset because when the dollar is weaker they know that the USA will buy less goods from them, therefore China does not want the USD to get weaker nor do they want theirs to get stronger. They want things to stay how they are. They want to have a trade surplus. China wants the US to have a trade deficit, so that the US will keep buying China's goods. China wants their producers to be able to produce things for less. China does not want to lose their price advantage.
7-What does China do to make it so that they can stay cozy in their current position? They artificially devalue their currency, (thereby increasing the value of the dollar). They print off Yuan and trade them for dollars. As China increases the value of the dollar (by trading dollars for printed Yuan) and decreases the value of the Yuan (by printing more Yuan), this makes it so China maintains its trade surplus, and the USA maintains its trade deficit. China avoids the equilibrium. 
Phase II - T-BONDS
8-Q:So what does China do with all of these dollars that they bought with Yuan that they printed to artificially devalue their currency? A:They buy treasury bonds from the US Government. (also reffered to as "t-bills" "t-notes" "t-bonds"; t-bills = less than a year, t-bonds=more than a year)
9-When China buys t-bonds with their dollars it creates more demand for t-bonds. What does more demand for t-bonds do ? drive up the price of t-bonds. Is this a good thing for the US gov't/USA? yes! This means that the US Gov't&/USA has to pay less interest to borrow money because so many people are now willing to lend it to them. Thus, debt in general in the USA is cheaper.

How much to produce?

If I am in business I need to answer 

the Question: "How much of product X should I produce?"

Answer: Choose Q (quantity) so that Marginal Revenue = Marginal Cost

MR = change in TR/change in Q

TR = p*q

but, that is not the whole answer.

When MR = MC all that means is that is your maximum revenue possibility. 

That does not mean you'll make a DIME.

after choosing Q so that MR=MC determine your profit by the following equation:

Profit = Total Revenue - Total Costs.

When costs < revenue profit is a +

when costs > revenue profit is a -

when costs = revenue profit is a 0

using the ATC (average total costs) formula below, you can compare costs/unit to price/unit at any given point.

Total Cost/Q

if P(per unit) > ATC then profit is a +

if p(per unit) < ATC then profit is a -

if p(per unit) = ATC then profit is a 0

Butterfly Effect

"The 2008-2009 worldwide recession is expected to ause an additional 55 to 90 million people to slip below the extreme poverty level and push the number of hungry people to over a billion."

Optimal Amount of Crime - Marginal Benefit / Marginal Cost changes with innovation

Q:Is there an optimal amount of crime in society?
A: Yes.
How? If the marginal benefits for policing one more unit of crime are less than the marginal costs for policing one more unit of crime, then we don't enforce the law because it is too costly
This principal is illustrated in the first graph below. The benefit for policing Murderers and stoping homicides is far greater than the cost of doing so. However, the cost of policing J-walkers is far too high compared with the benefit. It is important to note that the costs and the benefits are measured in dollars for conversation's sake.

So, What happens if a huge technological innovation all of the sudden makes it much less costly to police (ceteris paribus)? The marginal benefits for policing crime stay constant, however the cost of policing crime has been greatly reduced. This innovation would allow us to catch more J-walkers and more petty crime in the like, at a lesser marginal cost. (illustrated in the graph below)

Remember that the intraverse of this graph is true too. If a de-innovation occurred then crime would be more costly, when the marginal cost of crime increases it would cost more money to police less crime.

Supply and Demand

S=Supply, D=Demand; 
X axis = Quantity Demanded
Y axis = Price in $
At PBAR (top, blue) Qd and Qs have an excess of supply.

At P2 (orange) Qd is less and Qs is more. The excess of supply decreased as the price moved toward the equilibrium(intersecting points)
P* is the equilibrium price at which supply and demand will always flow to. This concept is similar to a pendulum that always swings toward the equilibrium spot.

my good friend Khan helps us out on this topic with his microeconomics video:

Arrow Paradox

Arrow Paradox
Preferences in HP, Color, and Sex Appeal

	Horse Power	Color	Sex Appeal
Chevy	PREFERRED
Ford		PREFERRED
BMW			PREFERRED

Preferred one to another

	1st Preference	2nd Preference	3rd Preference
HORSE POWER	Chevy	Ford	BMW
COLOR	Ford	BMW	Chevy
SEX APPEAL	BMW	Chevy	Ford

This idea is very simple given the data above. 


the data it indicate:
Chevy is preferred to Ford 2:1
Ford is preferred to BMW   2:1
BMW is preferred to Chevy  2:1
-or-
BMW is preferred to Chevy which is preferred to Ford which is preferred to BMW which is preferred to Chevy which is preferred to Ford.. etc...


Unless there is a different weight for each preference, you can not make a choice between Ford, BMW, and Chevy.


This argument is used to say that there is no democracy. All democracy has to do with is the order in which candidate A vs. B vs. C approach each other (or the order in which you present Chevy vs. Ford, then Chevy vs BMW).


"it has been said that you can rig an election by presenting alternatives in a specific order."


Using the example above:
If I present Ford vs. BMW as your first two alternatives, then you pick Ford because it is preferred 2:1 to BMW.
If I then present Ford vs. Chevy it is preferred to ford 2:1, therefore you pick Chevy. but if I had presented BMW the first time, you would have picked BMW.

Property Rights

Property rights (intellectual, physical, etc.) are a keystone/foundation of economic prosperity.

Without property rights we would not have specialization and trade. 

In the good 'ole US of A the great plaines spent years without reaching their agricultural potential. Why? The USA believed in property rights didn't they? The problem was they could not enforce the property rights. Hence they were useless. So,... when good old barbed wire came along that technological innovation transformed the great plaines. The agricultural giant plaines became covered with barbed wire and their agricultural potential was achieved! Why? because the farmers had the right now to keep Joe Smith off of their farm land (Restriction of use). A key essential to private property rights: the right to keep others off (restrict access to the resource).

Another key point in Property Rights is the transfer of ownership. When ownership is transferred, obviously the new owner sees a higher value in the resource he is buying than the previous owner. That means that the resource is now owned by someone who gives it higher value. Thus the transfer of property rights allow the property to move to its highest valued use.

Furthermore ownership creates an incentive for me not to over exploit the resources I own. For example, if I own a 1,000,000 sq. mile ranch that has 500 head of rhinos, of which I farm their horns and sell them, my rhino population will never go extinct. I would never exploit the rhino population below a sustainable point (below a point where my opportunity cost is higher than the potential benefits of killing a rhino).

Furthermore, I won't just keep the population at a sustainable number, I will invest in my sustainable rhino business, because it is mine. 

one thing to note- on communal property everybody exploits as much as they can get away with because we all know that if I don't do X, then Joe Shmoe over there will just do X anyway. This is why our seas are tremendously overfished and exploited, this is also why the black Rhino is nearly extinct..

signed

-AS

Metcalfe's Law

4squared = 16

if i have 4 users = my value is 16

so the user:value proportion is always users*users -or- users squared.

This is why technological monopolies happen. There is an exponential increase per user added. This is why Windows is so dominant. This is why facebook is so dominant. 

result_937738410

Social Innovations

Social Innovations.

Today in economics we talked about social innovations. 

An example of a social innovation is when companies hire supervisors to stop shirking. (Missionaries going out 2 by 2) This is a social innovation. 

A dilemma occurs when we compare Whales to Cattle.

The Whales are going extinct! Why? Because they are comunal property. Nobody owns them. Since nobody owns them every whaler on the planet plunders and loads his boat with all the whales he can fit with each venture. Why? Because he has no incentive to save the whales. He knows that if he doesn't kill the whale the next whaler will do the same. 

Why is this only happening to Whales and not Cattle ? The Cattle are owned by farmers. It is in the Farmer's best interest to keep his population at a sustainable rate and practice sustainable practices. The farmer won't plunder and pillage because he knows that it will only be to his detriment.

The key point here is: Ownership & Enforcement of Ownership must prevail, and when it does, The cattle rancher will align himself along his PPF (maximum output).

Today's simile: A social innovation is like a Policeman.

Double Coincident Want Problem

Another cool thing that we talked about was the fact that In a barter economy, nobody will specialize, because if I am to trade an M.D. his medical services for my web design, It is just so hard to figure out what amount of his medical services I need to give what amount of Web design for that ? The solution is money.  wether it is Wheat or a stick or a piece of paper, money is the solution. 

Money $$$$ what is $$$$$$$ ? it is a common good accepted by everyone. 
If I accept money I only accept it because I know that somebody else will accept it from me! It has nothing to do with me liking it.

Opportunistic Behavior

Oil Refinery and Oil Pipeline analogy. The pipeline is owned by company A and the Refinery by company B. If company A were to commit to build the pipeline company B would then exploit them to the max. 

Q:How do we overcome this issue?
A:vertical integration. aka joint ownership. When two different companies combine forces and invest together so that A can't screw B and B can't screw A
A2:Contract enforcement. (Gov't)
A3:Reputation of Company A or B at risk.




That's all folkz
-ahs

Percentage of Population Living on less than 1 dollar a day

-I am indebted to the rich people that start banks- -Alex

How does the government think that they can take away my freedom via coercion?

If I do not wear my seat belt, I harm nobody but myself.

How, then, can it be required by law?

The principal here is: If I do not harm a 3rd party there should be no regulation whatsoever.

Many government agencies and bureaucrats try to decide for me what I think is best.

Why should I be forced to buy a car that is more expensive because it has an airbag in it?

Why should each product that I purchase be reviewed by a cast of bureaucrats deciding what is best for me!

I have my own brain, I can decide for myself.

One could argue that "Oh! The airbag has saved 50,000 lives because it is so much safer" but I say to that the following:

all you are doing is looking at the direct consequences,

what are the indirect consequences?

well, with an airbag mandate each Ycar is $X more expensive, therefore, people will buy less of Ycar. Older, unsafer cars are on the road, how many deaths are caused by the older worn-down vehicles relative to the 50,000?

Think of the pharmaceutical business in the USA. The FDA is in bed with pfizer. Pfizer loves the fact that they have to pay billions of dollars and wait 6 months to get a 2nd generation viagra pill on the market. Why do they love it? Because that means that their pill (albiet inferior to the 2nd generation viagra pill that has been in "testing" for 6 years) has been dominating the market for the last 6 years! Furthermore, pfizer is the only company with the K to break the barrier of entry. 

Furthermore- pills are so heavily regulated that no FDA bureaucrat wants their neck on the guillotine if they were to approve a "bad" pill. Therefore they take 0 risk. Even if the risk would benefit the populous as a whole. They have incentives to not allow new drugs to enter the market than to allow them in. If they do not allow the life-saving pill in the market, nobody but a few scientists will know about it! If they allow the bad pill in the market their reputation and latter-climbing potential just went to pot. I'd act the same way, that is why the social structure needs to be reformed in regards to FDA regulation of pharmaceuticals. 

1/11/12

Dear Colleague,

The problem was (the Hmong's words) "That the Sprit caught her and Lia fell down… Soul loss… It started when Lia's sister Yer slammed the door and Lia's soul was frightened… We are now angered at Yer for slamming the door… We need to sacrifice pigs and chickens to cure her, as well as a few Hmong treatments… All we want from the doctor is a small pill to take, without removing any blood, so that she will be fixed by next week and get her sould back."

These ideas that the author presumes that the Lees would have had are very interesting to me. Their understanding of what was going on was so far from that in my head. I have read almost the whole book and until it was put in this simplistic form I did not truly understand how they felt about the situation at present. Fadiman felt inclined to call Kleinman and discuss her results with him. What Kleinman is a lesson of a lifetime that you and I can benefit greatly from.

"Get rid of the term 'compliance.' It's a lousy term. It implies moral hegemony. Also, instead of looking at coercion, look at a model of mediation. Go find a member of the Hmong community who can help you negociate. Decide what is critical and be willing to compromise on everything else. If you cannot see that your own culture has its own set of interests, emotions, and biases, how can you expect to deal successfully with someone else's culture?" (p. 261)

What Kleinman is saying above is that we need to 1- watch our language so that there is not a hint of coercion or authoritarianism in our tone or words. 2- In dealing with different peoples and cultures we must never have coercion as out medium, rather we should have mediation. And finally, we should realize that our culture has it's sets of motives in and of itself. Its own biases, interests, emotions. If you can't realize that then you can't deal with other cultures!

I hope that we can learn from this my friend! What a great read!

Signed,

Alexander Hatch Spencer

this picture rocks

you gotta know when to hold them and when to fold them

you always gotta give people the edge and let them think they're ahead a little

Always be very careful about what I write, it may come to haunt or exault me til the day I die.

TWS

"a professor my freshman year of law school told me that I belong on the grounds crew."

"sometimes in life you just have to keep going"

Assume nothing

Challenge everything

Never give up

-TWS

fear to negociate

my pops is the burning example of the following statement:

Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate. 

-John F. Kennedy

"hold their toes to the fire, get them with everything they have" -TWS

the past week he has represented me legally and i have been amazed at how powerfully he can negotiate and present himself in such a modest yet fearless fashion. VIVA tws.

The man who grasps principles can successfully select his own methods, the man who grasps methods ignoring principals is sure to have trouble. -RW Emerson 

I not only use all the brains that i have, but all the brains i can borrow. -woodrow wilson

today was my pop's 65th birthday celebration.

His words were piercing to my soul, he advised:

dont ever assume anything in life. 

and always challenge everything.

furthermore- dont surrender your dream!

Pareto's Law

If I could quantify what percentage of my time equates to alexspencer net productivity the ratio would be

20% of my time equates to 80% of my productivity.

I must understand that 20% of what I do produces 80% of my results.

I must cut out dead weight. Focus on the 20%.

For example, 80% of any given company's problems (be them what they may) come from 20% of their customers/suppliers/employees.

Give the other people some credibility, and give yourself a hedge.

I will never live in other's dogma. 

a way by wich I will do this is by failing.

I will fail.

I will do stuff that makes me uncomfortable

every day

We are not human beings having a spiritual experience. We are spiritual beings having a human experience

We are not human beings having a spiritual experience.
We are spiritual beings having a human experience

aprendemos com erros e morremos aprendendo

The subject is one very close to the beating heart of any blooded mammal: death.

         Death makes me reflect on something that I had heard weeks ago- "Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. " (Steve Jobs, 2008). There is a statement in the book of Psalms that reads: "So teach us to number our days, that we may bet us a heart of wisdom." There is much truth in this statement. my days are numbered. When I realize that my days are numbered, I then become a living creature. I soar above the vein, the dogma, the minute. I have wisdom. Wisdom that says that I will die so I must live every second to the fullest! "…the nearness of death intensif[ies] every aspect of life."

         Knowing that I will die, knowing that my days are numbered, does not mean that I anticipate diminishment and sorrow; rather it makes me at peace with death. Being at peace with death slaughters the demon on my back and frees me. I know that I must live and live and live and live and live my life without bounds. At any minute the reaper will slit my throat and I am dirt! How I must never forget this!

         My dearest reader, I pray that you and I may be free from the burden that death is. I pray that we may open our eyes and realize that we are and that our days are numbered!

Signed,

Alexander Hatch Spencer

when the lottery is @ $10 million they say-----"That is the devil's game!!"

when the lottery is @ $100 million they say----"We sure could do a lot for the Kingdom w/ that!"